Bayesian inference of the initial conditions from large-scale structure surveys

Analysis of three-dimensional cosmological surveys has the potential to answer outstanding questions on the initial conditions from which structure appeared, and therefore on the very high energy physics at play in the early Universe. We report on recently proposed statistical data analysis methods designed to study the primordial large-scale structure via physical inference of the initial conditions in a fully Bayesian framework, and applications to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data release 7. We illustrate how this approach led to a detailed characterization of the dynamic cosmic web underlying the observed galaxy distribution, based on the tidal environment.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Proceedings of IAU Symposium 308 "The Zeldovich Universe: Genesis and Growth of the Cosmic Web", Tallinn, Estonia, June 23-28, 2014 (eds R. van de Weygaert, S. Shandarin, E. Saar, J. Einasto). Draws from arXiv:1409.6308. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1410.154

Bayesian optimisation for likelihood-free cosmological inference

Many cosmological models have only a finite number of parameters of interest, but a very expensive data-generating process and an intractable likelihood function. We address the problem of performing likelihood-free Bayesian inference from such black-box simulation-based models, under the constraint of a very limited simulation budget (typically a few thousand). To do so, we adopt an approach based on the likelihood of an alternative parametric model. Conventional approaches to approximate Bayesian computation such as likelihood-free rejection sampling are impractical for the considered problem, due to the lack of knowledge about how the parameters affect the discrepancy between observed and simulated data. As a response, we make use of a strategy previously developed in the machine learning literature (Bayesian optimisation for likelihood-free inference, BOLFI), which combines Gaussian process regression of the discrepancy to build a surrogate surface with Bayesian optimisation to actively acquire training data. We extend the method by deriving an acquisition function tailored for the purpose of minimising the expected uncertainty in the approximate posterior density, in the parametric approach. The resulting algorithm is applied to the problems of summarising Gaussian signals and inferring cosmological parameters from the Joint Lightcurve Analysis supernovae data. We show that the number of required simulations is reduced by several orders of magnitude, and that the proposed acquisition function produces more accurate posterior approximations, as compared to common strategies.Comment: 16+9 pages, 12 figures. Matches PRD published version after minor modification

Bayesian inference of dark matter voids in galaxy surveys

We apply the BORG algorithm to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 main sample galaxies. The method results in the physical inference of the initial density field at a scale factor $a~=~10^{-3}$, evolving gravitationally to the observed density field at a scale factor $a~=~1$, and provides an accurate quantification of corresponding uncertainties. Building upon these results, we generate a set of constrained realizations of the present large-scale dark matter distribution. As a physical illustration, we apply a void identification algorithm to them. In this fashion, we access voids defined by the inferred dark matter field, not by galaxies, greatly alleviating the issues due to the sparsity and bias of tracers. In addition, the use of full-scale physical density fields yields a drastic reduction of statistical uncertainty in void catalogs. These new catalogs are enhanced data sets for cross-correlation with other cosmological probes.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Proceedings of the "49th Rencontres de Moriond" Cosmology Session, La Thuile, Italy, March 22-29, 2014. Draws from arXiv:1409.6308 and arXiv:1410.0355. One more figure, updated figures and references with respect to the published versio

Bayesian large-scale structure inference: initial conditions and the cosmic web

We describe an innovative statistical approach for the ab initio simultaneous analysis of the formation history and morphology of the large-scale structure of the inhomogeneous Universe. Our algorithm explores the joint posterior distribution of the many millions of parameters involved via efficient Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We describe its application to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data release 7 and an additional non-linear filtering step. We illustrate the use of our findings for cosmic web analysis: identification of structures via tidal shear analysis and inference of dark matter voids.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Proceedings of the IAU Symposium 306 "Statistical Challenges in 21st Century Cosmology", Lisbon, Portugal, May 25-29, 2014 (eds A.F. Heavens, J.-L. Starck, A. Krone-Martins). Draws from arXiv:1409.6308 and arXiv:1410.035

Bayesian large-scale structure inference and cosmic web analysis

Surveys of the cosmic large-scale structure carry opportunities for building and testing cosmological theories about the origin and evolution of the Universe. This endeavor requires appropriate data assimilation tools, for establishing the contact between survey catalogs and models of structure formation. In this thesis, we present an innovative statistical approach for the ab initio simultaneous analysis of the formation history and morphology of the cosmic web: the BORG algorithm infers the primordial density fluctuations and produces physical reconstructions of the dark matter distribution that underlies observed galaxies, by assimilating the survey data into a cosmological structure formation model. The method, based on Bayesian probability theory, provides accurate means of uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the application of BORG to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data and describe the primordial and late-time large-scale structure in the observed volume. We show how the approach has led to the first quantitative inference of the cosmological initial conditions and of the formation history of the observed structures. We then use these results for several cosmographic projects aiming at analyzing and classifying the large-scale structure. In particular, we build an enhanced catalog of cosmic voids probed at the level of the dark matter distribution, deeper than with the galaxies. We present detailed probabilistic maps of the dynamic cosmic web, and offer a general solution to the problem of classifying structures in the presence of uncertainty. The results described in this thesis constitute accurate chrono-cosmography of the inhomogeneous cosmic structure.Comment: 237 pages, 63 figures, 14 tables. PhD thesis, Institut d'Astrophysique de Paris, September 2015 (advisor: B. Wandelt). Contains the papers arXiv:1305.4642, arXiv:1409.6308, arXiv:1410.0355, arXiv:1502.02690, arXiv:1503.00730, arXiv:1507.08664 and draws from arXiv:1403.1260. Full version including high-resolution figures available from the author's websit

Past and present cosmic structure in the SDSS DR7 main sample

We present a chrono-cosmography project, aiming at the inference of the four dimensional formation history of the observed large scale structure from its origin to the present epoch. To do so, we perform a full-scale Bayesian analysis of the northern galactic cap of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 main galaxy sample, relying on a fully probabilistic, physical model of the non-linearly evolved density field. Besides inferring initial conditions from observations, our methodology naturally and accurately reconstructs non-linear features at the present epoch, such as walls and filaments, corresponding to high-order correlation functions generated by late-time structure formation. Our inference framework self-consistently accounts for typical observational systematic and statistical uncertainties such as noise, survey geometry and selection effects. We further account for luminosity dependent galaxy biases and automatic noise calibration within a fully Bayesian approach. As a result, this analysis provides highly-detailed and accurate reconstructions of the present density field on scales larger than $\sim~3$ Mpc$/h$, constrained by SDSS observations. This approach also leads to the first quantitative inference of plausible formation histories of the dynamic large scale structure underlying the observed galaxy distribution. The results described in this work constitute the first full Bayesian non-linear analysis of the cosmic large scale structure with the demonstrated capability of uncertainty quantification. Some of these results will be made publicly available along with this work. The level of detail of inferred results and the high degree of control on observational uncertainties pave the path towards high precision chrono-cosmography, the subject of simultaneously studying the dynamics and the morphology of the inhomogeneous Universe.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figure

Comparing cosmic web classifiers using information theory

We introduce a decision scheme for optimally choosing a classifier, which segments the cosmic web into different structure types (voids, sheets, filaments, and clusters). Our framework, based on information theory, accounts for the design aims of different classes of possible applications: (i) parameter inference, (ii) model selection, and (iii) prediction of new observations. As an illustration, we use cosmographic maps of web-types in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to assess the relative performance of the classifiers T-web, DIVA and ORIGAMI for: (i) analyzing the morphology of the cosmic web, (ii) discriminating dark energy models, and (iii) predicting galaxy colors. Our study substantiates a data-supported connection between cosmic web analysis and information theory, and paves the path towards principled design of analysis procedures for the next generation of galaxy surveys. We have made the cosmic web maps, galaxy catalog, and analysis scripts used in this work publicly available.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables. Matches JCAP published version. Public data available from the first author's website (currently http://icg.port.ac.uk/~leclercq/